The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. Defense News' Russia correspondent, Matthew Bodner, contributed to this report from Moscow. Cities are not targeted as population centers, but buildings, complexes, and other facilities inside them would be destroyed without mercy. With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. (Eric Lee/BLOOMBERG) Branko Marcetic is a staff . But there's one area where the West is falling dangerously behind Russia and China. Its airspace also is heavily fortified. In our scenario, the Joint Chiefs of Staff argue that the United States has nothing to lose by trying, and in doing so, could attempt to reduce the overall damage of an inevitable second strike. However, Barmin said, "it is doubtful that Russia has the capacity to emerge as a leading power in [the Middle East] in the near future because its presence in the region is limited if you compare it to that of the United States. Up goes the budget for digital technology, artificial intelligence and cyber. However, escalation remains a concern. For a conventional operation, Russia also could bring assets from its Northern Fleet, which frequently patrols the North Atlantic, into the Baltic theater to support a larger action. First, a sustained war of conquest is unlikely. "Hybrid warfare casts doubts about when there should be a military response, or whether this is a civilian issue that should be taken care of by local law enforcement," he said. What would a war with Russia look like today. The war has caused global ripples, raising the stakes of . Russias invasion of Ukraine will almost certainly not start an all-out nuclear war. Vladimir Putin has reminded Europe since invading Ukraine that Russia is still a nuclear superpower. Russia claims to have some 750 tanks in its western military region, though its unclear how much of that equipment is legitimately combat-ready. "In all likelihood, yes," he says. The Soviet-era weapons design bureaus remain prominent internationally. Under Article 5 of NATOs founding treaty, Washington has extended the protection of its nuclear umbrella to NATO nations, which means the U.S. would treat a nuclear attack on those countries in the same way it would an attack on American soil; in other words, it protects them by promising to retaliate in kind to any nuclear strikes on their territory. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war; as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. Transcript: Here's What a Cyber War With Russia May Actually Look Like She believes the solution is two things - close consultation and collaboration with allies and investment in the right places. NATO said earlier this week it had stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance's military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation with Moscow and give more time to talks. In that quest, he has raised the specter of resurgent Russian military might from Ukraine to the Baltics, from Syria to the broader Middle East. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. It's logistically complex. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. Read about our approach to external linking. But it is now developing some key technologies, new fighting tactics and a brazen geopolitical strategy that is. But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines, and electronic warfare. Before we begin, we should note that neither of the scenarios are likely to occur in our lifetimes. Would a nuclear counterattack achieve anything? Still, a nuclear war is not impossible. Today, the U.S. spends nearly 10 times more than Russia on national defense. "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. The only alternatives are naval supply lines running from Crimea, requiring a passage of up to 10 days round-trip. With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. Each location would likely receive a minimum of two nukes in case the first weapon fails to detonate. Over the past several months tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang have grown steadily, with North Korean provocations (often themselves driven by the Kim regime's idiosyncratic and cryptic assessments of the international environment) incurring aggressive rhetorical responses from the South. As Russia's Ukraine war intensifies, some warn nuclear escalation is Since its annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Russia has steadily expanded its military presence in the region. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. Meanwhile, the Russian army, still predominantly a conscripted force, is being transitioned to an American-style professional force. That has sparked concern in the West that Putin's ultimate goal is to break NATO with force, if intimidation fails. It's unclear who will take her place as the Pentagon's key policy maker for Russia-related issues. Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. Did they look at how much in demand are Russian resources before the sanctioning Russia? Kiev says it's desperate for more weaponry, but so far Washington has shown willingness to provide only nonlethal equipment. Kalashnikov, who died on December 23, 2013 at the age of 94, was to receive a funeral with full state honours and be buried at the Federal Military Memorial Cemetery (FVMK) in Mytishchi outside Moscow, the defence ministry said. "The Russian defense industry is being rebuilt from ruins," said Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center, a think tank. For example, he said, "one can look at the U.S. Navy as massively superior to the Russian navy. Sgt. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower In this scenario, both sides have lost. ", Ukrainian serviceman patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, Donetsk region, on June 20, 2015. (Homs Media Centre via AP). ", Russian soldiers stand in line to pay their last respect to Mikhail Kalashnikov, the designer of the iconic AK-47 assault rifle that was the favoured weapon of guerrillas worldwide, during his funeral ceremony in Mytishchi outside Moscow on December 27, 2013. What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? . The audio-visual scenario is called "Plan A" and it shows how devastating a nuclear war would be. This is what would happen if Russia and the US had a nuclear war - MSN In our scenario, both sides are devastated with no winners. The exercise will feature the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the guided missile cruiser Moskva, as well as several smaller escort vessels and large amphibious assault and landing ships, Russia's TASS news agency reported. CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them: 1. Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war An attack on just one city in the U.S. could cause fatalities in the hundreds of thousands and just as many injuries, Tara Drozdenko, director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, tells Popular Mechanics. In total, across Europe, Asia, and the US the simulation says a total of 90 million people would be killed within the first few hours of conflict and that number does not include deaths from nuclear fallout or other long-term effects. Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. 2023 BBC. Russian troops deployed close to the Ukrainian border will return to base after completing their exercises, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world's media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to . By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Russia's aerospace industry, for example, has benefited greatly from international exports to non-Western nations, which go to Russia to buy effective fighter jets that are cheaper than their Western variants. Some military officials question whether the exercise is a cover for shipping more troops and gear to the Syrian coast. The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflictRussia fires a warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad in an attempt to stop a U.S./NATO advance. The greatest concern for Russia in this scenario would be how the Ukrainian military and police would respond. Today, the fleet is split between Kalingrad and St. Petersburg, making it difficult to support a larger fleet. However, the U.S. does not have the same security relationship with Ukraine as it does with NATO member nations and allies such as South Korea and Japan. "The static airpower picture would favor the Russians because they have a lot of capability in terms of air defense and a variety of tactical and cruise and ballistic missiles," said Paul Schwartz, a Russian military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Here's what a Russian invasion of Ukraine might look like if it happens Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. What Will Russia Without Putin Look Like? Maybe This. "One of the ways to gain some quantitative mass back and to complicate adversaries' defence planning or attack planning is to pair human beings and machines," she says. ", Yet some see Putin's maneuvers in Syria as some broader geopolitical gambit that aims to secure a deal on Ukraine. Photo Credit: Andrey Kronberg/AFP/Getty Images. The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, testified to Congress in April 2021 that the United States might well face a two-front or even a three-front war if Russia were to . "No Americans have been under Russian artillery or rocket fire or been on the receiving end of significant Russian electronic warfare, the jamming and collecting, for example, not at tactical levels.". Leaked papers reveal reality behind Ukraine war propaganda and it's There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in. According to a recent open-source study (not published in a peer-reviewed journal), such an all-out attack would kill as many as 104,241,000 Americans. Photo Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP. "It has been interesting to hear what they have learned," Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told Defense News, a sister publication of Military Times. An expansion of the war to NATO remains unlikely but possible; the Russian use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable but not at all impossible. How Powerful, Widespread Is Fallout From a Nuclear Bomb? - Business Insider In the four-minute-long video, scientists play out a scenario where Russia is attempting to fight off members of NATO. China today spends more on defense annually than Russia, but still imports platforms and advanced weaponry from Russia. His statement was blunt: The Russia military would begin air strikes in neighboring Syria within the hour and the American military should clear the area immediately.It was a bout of brinksmanship between two nuclear-armed giants that the world has not seen in decades, and it has revived Cold War levels of suspicion, antagonism and gamesmanship.With the launch of airstrikes in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin instigated a proxy war with the U.S., putting those nation's powerful militaries in support of opposing sides of the multipolar conflict. Whether Modi and Xi fit such a description is a question for another day, but the governments that they lead have not managed to find a way to resolve the conflict. It's denial." "The military balance can only be ensured by Russia's nuclear might, which isn't as expensive to maintain as many people think. Here, the US has the qualitative edge over its potential adversaries and Michele Flournoy believes it can offset areas where the West is outnumbered by the vast size of China's People's Liberation Army. ", You can listen Frank Gardner's full report on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, guest-edited by General Sir Nick Carter, the former Chief of Defence Staff, Russia launches pre-dawn missile attack on Ukraine, Chaos at port as thousands rush to leave Sudan, Suspected IS chief killed in Syria, Turkey says. War in Ukraine - CBS News What would World War 3 actually look like? - Russia Beyond Because of the dire consequences of a nuclear conflict, it is incumbent on nuclear states to seek diplomatic solutions, Drozdenko says. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File). The Chechen soldiers are clear they're in Ukraine to make up for around two centuries of Russian oppression of their mountainous and frequently mutinous homeland from Joseph Stalin's population deportation in the . A war between NATO and Russia would be tantamount to World War 3. The United States signalled Friday that a. In late September, all sides agreed to withdraw tanks and heavy artillery from Ukraine's eastern front. The result: Russia is unexpectedly re-emerging as America's chief military rival. Ukraine Counter-Offensive Will Be Like a 'Big Bang,' Says Military Expert What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine - The Atlantic and Russian leaders understand that a full-scale nuclear war would be a civilization-ending event, Drozdenko explains. Ukraine: what would a Russian invasion actually look like? These are Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Another aspect of the Russian military that gets overhyped is its Baltic Fleet, the smallest of Russia's main fleets and truly a shadow of its former self. China's Dong Feng 17, first revealed in 2019, carries a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can manoeuvre through the atmosphere with an almost unpredictable trajectory, making it hard to intercept. Saturday 29 April 2023 01:15, UK. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". Once that happens, all bets are off. Most populous nation: Should India rejoice or panic? That's hypersonic missiles - super-charged projectiles that can fly at anywhere between five and 27 times the speed of sound and carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead.
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